John Naisbitt (1929- )
American expert of future business trends (pictured right) and famous for his multi-million worldwide
bestseller, Megatrends (see below).
Key book
Megatrends (1984)
Ten “megatrends” will shape the future:
1. From an industrial to an information society
There is lots of information but little knowledge, so selecting what’s important is vital.
2. From forced technology to high tech/ high touch
Technology must respond to human needs (“high tech/high touch”).
3. From a national economy to a world economy
Globalization is inevitable with an interdependent world economy.
4. From short-term to long-term
Businesses must:
- think about their long-term future (strategy, the business they’re in, etc.).
5. From centralization to decentralization
People’s involvement in decision making in government, society and organizations.
6. From institutional help to self-help
More self-help, community involvement and self-employment.
7. From representative democracy to participating
democracy
Power to people e.g. referenda, employee involvement in decision making and empowering leadership.
8. From hierarchies to networking
Communication through informal contacts (e.g. in groups) outside the hierarchical structure.
9. From North to South
An economic shift in America from the North and East to the South and West (particularly Florida, Texas and
California).
10. From either/or to multiple option
Greater personal choice - for example:
- more opportunities for women and racial minorities.
Key quote on knowledge management
We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge.
Key quotes on the past, present and
future
The most reliable way to anticipate the future is by understanding the present.
Trends, like horses, are easier to ride in the direction they are already going.
Key quote on
technology
We must learn to balance the material wonders of technology with the spiritual demands of our human nature.
Key quote on
leadership
The new leader is a facilitator, not an order giver.
Key
quote on human resource management
The most formidable
challenge will be to train people to work in the information society.
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